Will a Second Wave of Foreclosures Flood the Tampa Bay Real Estate Market?

 


Local real estate authorities had predicted that a second wave of foreclosures would hit our struggling real estate market. However Tampa Bay real estate isn’t showing any signs of a second wave so far. In fact delinquent mortgages are actually declining and new foreclosure filings have decreased for the 6th time in seven months-a 21% drop from last month. Likewise, nationwide delinquent loans are also dropping. Loans that were 90 days past due have continued to fall for five consecutive quarters. This is the lowest level since 2009.


Some local foreclosure experts still believe a second wave is out there, mostly because of what is referred to as a “shadow inventory.” These are homes that have already been taken back by the lender, but aren’t yet for sale. If they all came to the market at once they could have devastating effects on pricing; because of this banks tend to hold them back. Estimating the amount of shadow inventory can be difficult.


In regards to a second wave being averted, economists argue that this new group of foreclosures would be a totally different profile than the last. For instance, previous foreclosures were primarily home owners who took out loans they simply could not afford, and eventually defaulted on. Any second hit would more than likely be from individuals or families where job loss occurred, a much smaller group than the first.


Ultimately, the wild card is both the shadow inventory and how the banks release it into the market. I can’t imagine banks would be interested in pushing prices further down by increasing inventory; ultimately creating more work and less profit for themselves. While there surely are foreclosed homes that have yet to come to market, I am doubtful that we’ll see anything like we did a few years ago with Tampa real estate.


When listing or buying a property it is essential to have a Realtor who knows the community, understands market data and can price a home correctly. If you are interested in buying or selling Tampa real estate, I would love the opportunity to work with you. Please call me 813-924-4468 or use the contact form on the left side of the page.


 

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by: slc
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